修昔底德陷阱,美国移动洲际弹道导弹战略与技术发展的隐秘历史

一条未知之路:美利坚协作国运动洲际弹道导弹计谋与技术提升的隐私历史An Untaken
Road: Strategy, Technology, and the Hidden History of America’s Mobile
ICBMs,共304页。

Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general. His History of
the Peloponnesian War recounts the 5th-century BC war between
Sparta and Athens until the year 411 BC.

图片 1

修昔底德是雅典(Athenian)历史学家、将军。他所著的《伯罗奔尼撒(Peloponnesian)战争史》讲述了(recounts)公元前5世纪斯巴达与雅典之间的烽火,战事平素不断到公元前411年。

假定急需电子版,请联系QQ:3042075372。

He has been called the father of the school of political realism,
which views the political behavior of individuals and the
subsequent outcomes of relations between states as ultimately
mediated by and constructed upon the emotions of fear and
self-interest.

冷战历史的新领域在本书的美利坚合营国移动洲际弹道导弹陈述中拿走了一个新的补偿。

她被称之为政治现实主义学派(the
school此处为学派,并非学校啦
)之父,该学派(which)认为个人的政治表现和国度关系抓住(引发与后果搭配)的存在延续结果(subsequent
outcome)是由恐惧和私利心境产生并最终发展(mediated by and
constructed )而来的。

The emerging field of Cold War historyreceives a new addition with An
Untaken Road, an account of mobileintercontinental ballistic missiles
inAmerica.

More generally, Thucydides developed an understanding of human
nature to explain behavior in such crises as plagues, massacres,
and civil war.

正史教师StevePomeroy,也是一人前传教士,在搜求美利坚合众国陆军武装配备洲际弹道导弹的同一时间,深切钻研了美国核军器历史上最不为人所知的天地之一。

从广义上的话(More generally
相似的话),修昔底德开启了(developed)对人性的解读,进而解释瘟疫、大屠杀、国内战役等风险景况(crises)下的人类行为。

Steve Pomeroy, a history professor andformer missileer himself, delves
into one of least known areas ofAmerica’snuclear weapons history as he
explores the Air Force’s efforts to mobilize itsICBMs.

Graham Tillett Allison, an American political scientist and professor
at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, coined
the phrase “Thucydides Trap”, otherwise known as the security
dilemma, to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an
established power which escalates toward war. The past 500
years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to
displace a ruling one. Twelve of these ended in war.

Pomeroy运用成熟的技艺发展历史辩护来诱导读者:移动洲际弹道导弹是哪些在冷战时代产生并最后败诉的。

加州Davis分校大学Kennedy政党大学(Kennedy School of Government
)
的美利坚合众国政治学家、教师Graham•迪利特•艾力森创造(coined杜撰)了“修昔底德陷阱”一词,也就是(otherwise)我们所说的安全困境,是指当八个优良的泱泱大国(rising
power原词就是大国的意趣)
引起了现存(established)强国的谈虎色变,就能够升级为战斗(escalates
toward
war
)。在过去的500年间,有十八次面世叁个新崛起的大国对现成大国造成威吓的意况,当中有十一次都吸引了战役(ended
in war)

Pomeroy uses established historical theoryof technological development
to enlighten the reader as to how mobile ICBMscame about—and ultimately
failed—in the context of the Cold War.

The security dilemma has long been debated among international
relations theorists. As a theory, its development was influenced
by
the experience of Athens and Sparta—Thucydides wrote of the
Peloponnesian War that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear this
instilled
in Sparta that made war inevitable”—and arms racing
during the Cold War. The security dilemma suggests that increases
in one state’s security—even a defensively motivated power—may
decrease the security of another power. (Or, as Charles Glaser
put it, moves to reassure one power make the other less
secure.) States are fundamentally uncertain over one another’s
present and future intentions. However, the theory continues, this
does not mean states are doomed to fight. The offense-defense
balance
of military technology allows states to break out of the
security dilemma. This depends upon the relative advantages of offense
versus defense, and the degree to which offense and defense can be
differentiated from one another.

接纳历文学家Thomas·休斯(托马斯休斯)的五阶段模型的技革修改版本,体现了每三个打响的移位导弹项目最终都未有赢得应战所需的重力。

国际关系理论界(theorists)长久以来一贯在讨论安全困境。作为一种理论,它的进步受到雅典和斯巴达的经验的影响(influenced
by)
——修昔底德在写到伯罗奔尼撒战斗时提到:“雅典的卓越以及这种崛起在斯巴达引起的胆战心惊(the
fear this instilled
)
,使两个国家间战役不可防止”;同一时间,这一辩白也遭受冷战时期的军备竞技(arms
racing)
的震慑。安全困境表明(suggests),一国安全才能的增多(以致是堤防技艺的增加),可能会裁减另一国的平安技术。(可能,正如
查尔斯 Glaser 所说的那样(as put it),一国动用安全措施(reassure
one
power
)让……安心会使另一国尤其不安全。)各国对相互方今和未来的来意根本(fundamentally)没辙显著。然则,这几个理论仍在向上(continues),那并不代表国家时期注定要打仗。军事才能的进攻和防守平衡(offense-defense
balance)
能够让各国摆脱(break out of
)
安然困境。那有赖于进攻与防备的绝对优势,以及攻击与堤防能够并行区分(differentiated)的档期的顺序。

Employing a modified version of historianThomas Hughes’s five-phase
model of technological innovation, he shows how eachsucceeding mobile
missile program ultimately did not garner the momentumrequired to become
operational.

The world today is very different from the time of ancient Greece and
mankind has more wisdom to avoid history repeating itself.As a
Chinese saying goes, to achieve success, one has to obtain
“opportunities of time vouchsafed by Heaven, advantages of situation
afforded by the Earth and the union arising from the accord of
people,” or to put differently, right time, right place and right
person.

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当当代界与古希腊语(Greece)时代有极大不一样,人类在幸免重复(history repeating
itself.历史重演)上更有灵性。正如神州的一句老话所说,要想成功,必需求得到“天时、地利、人和”。

If these three conditions are ripe, China and the United States
face an unprecedented opportunity to break the trap and create a
win-win situation for both countries and the world as a whole.

设若那多个尺码都能抱有(ripe成熟),中国和U.S.A.就能够见前遭受着空前的机会来打破那么些陷阱,为两个国家以及满世界制造双赢局面。

This is a world where peace, development, cooperation and mutual
benefit have become the trend of the times. The Cold War mentality
and zero-sum game theory should be abandoned.

21世纪的社会风气,和平、发展、合营、双赢已变为时流。冷战思维(mentality)零和博艺(zero-sum
game theory一方的成功必导致一方的损失,即非同盟)
的老规矩必得放任。

Despite continuous regional conflicts, there is no sign of another
world war breaking out. More and more countries choose to sit and
negotiate in solving their disputes. Those who don’t follow the
peaceful trend will ultimately fail.

尽管世上仍不太平,小框框的地区性争论以致局地战役时起时伏,但世界范围的战火始终不曾(no
sign
of)打起来,更加的多的国家接纳坐下来议和协商,以消除争端。世界气象中,和平因素的增长当先了战斗成分的拉长。逆时流而动者,终将失利(Those
who don’t follow the peaceful trend will ultimately fail.)

With globalization deepening, one country’s loss will definitely not
just be its own.
“No conflict, no confrontation” will serve as the
bottom line for the relationship between the world’s two largest
economies in the new era.

人类生存在同一个地球村里,一荣俱荣,一损俱损(one country’s loss will
definitely not just be its
own.妙啊妙啊,二个国度的损失实际不是他自身的,而是大家的。便是一荣俱荣,一损俱损。
)。作为当今世界第一和第二大经济体,二国关系关乎世界命局。“不争论、不周旋”将是中国和U.S.关系的下线。(这一段细细品味)

It is important to remember the pledge of the United Nations “to
save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in
our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind.”

《联合国宪章》序言中的宣誓(the pledge
of)
值得(重要的正是值得哈哈)永恒铭刻:“小编联合国公民同兹决心:欲免后世再遭今代人类两度身历惨不堪言之战祸……”

Hatred and war can only bring disaster and distress, especially
when both China and the United States have nuclear weapons. If war
erupts, China’s development would surely suffer a severe blow, but
the U.S. leading role in the world would also be weakened.

历史可以告诫人类:偏见和歧视、仇恨和战火,只会带来不幸和痛苦(distress)。历史错误容不得再犯。特别是核军械出现后,大战一旦产生,整个人类将面对灭顶之灾(suffer
a severe blow
)。

It is true that China is rising, but it is a peaceful rise. China just
wants to bid farewell to its humiliating modern history and
realize its dream of national rejuvenation through reform and
opening up.

真正,中华夏族民共和国正在崛起,但这种崛起是和平的隆起。中夏族民共和国只是想告别(bid
farewell to)
耻辱的近代历史,通过改革开放实现中华民族复兴的梦想(dream
of national rejuvenation )。

Both China and the United States are important members of the
Asia-Pacific region which boasts the world’s fastest economic growth
and the greatest potential for development. It is also a region of
converging interests for both countries.

中国和美利坚协作国在大西洋双方隔洋相望(important members好好好,妙妙妙
),都以亚太地区首要国家。一方面,当今亚太地区是全世界经济前行速度最快、潜能最大、合营最活跃的地点,也是中国和U.S.好处交集(converging
interests)
最密集、互动最频仍的地带。

China and the U.S. shoulder the common responsibility to maintain
peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia Pacific, which is also the
wish of regional members.

推动亚太地区和平安定繁荣,是中国和米利坚两个国家的严重性任务(shoulder the common
responsibility 共同义务),也是地区国家的共同愿望(wish)。

Economic interdependence alone does not guarantee peace, but it is
indeed a strong force to prevent war. It is in America’s interest
for
China to be successful, peaceful and prosperous and vice
versa.

经济上互相注重并不能够保障制止争执(peace)正话反说,但着实是挡住冲突的根本力量。中中原人民共和国经济繁荣切合United States进益(in
America’s interest for )
,反之亦然。

It is the first time in history that an existing power and a rising
power have so many shared interests. Standing on the same ground,
even if
the two countries have 100 reasons to diverge, they have
1,000 reasons to cooperate.

二个当下大国与八个鼓鼓的中山大学国有所那样之多的共同利润,那在历史上尚属第三遍。从一块立场出发(Standing
on the same ground,
),中美纵有(even if
什么场所用哪些词儿,很好)
九19个理由发生龃龉,也可能有1000个理由保持合营。

China is now a major player and supporter of the current
international system, in which it is a full member. The more developed
China becomes, the more it needs a peaceful and stable international
environment. So does the United States.

华夏皆今后天国际体系重在加入者(major
player)
和协助者。中夏族民共和国的进化亟需和平牢固的国际蒙受,美利坚同盟国亦是如此。

These pragmatic steps demonstrate the two sides do in fact share
interests and can successfully work together.

中国和U.S.期间这一个务实举措(pragmatic
steps)
表达双方利润并存,能够成功开展合作。

The interaction between Chinese and US leaders could ensure that both
sides understand each other’s strategic intention and avoid making
mistakes on fundamental questions.

中国和美利坚合众国二国总领的彼此确认保证两方能精确判断(understand)交互计谋盘算,不在根本难题上犯错。

Forty-six years ago, the visit of the U.S. table tennis team to China
opened a new chapter in China-U.S. relations. Now there is a flight
between the two countries every 17 minutes. The number of students
studying in each other’s country has exceeded 500,000.All these lay a
good public opinion foundation for further cooperation.

46年前,来华访谈的U.S.乒球队开启了中国和美国公众友好往来的新篇章。这段时间两个国家之间每17分钟就有叁个航班起降(更流畅),两个国家在对方国家的留学生总量已逾50万。这几个都为强化中国和美利坚联邦合众国营商业和供销协作社作奠定压实(good)的民意基础。

A different history, culture, social system and development stage
make it just natural for China and the United States to have
divergences, but it is not the mainstream of their ties. Even if there
are issues they cannot resolve, they can manage them.

由于两国历史文化背景不同,社会制度、发展阶段各异(development
stage今后和过去很不一致样,各异用的很合适),两个国家出现分裂也是当然的。但分化不是二国关系的主流,尽管不恐怕解决,双方也能再说管理调节。

Over 90 intergovernmental dialogue and cooperation mechanisms have
been set up so that where there are unhelpful comments or examples
of narrow-minded strategic thinking, they cannot prevent the two
countries from cooperation.

中国和花旗国双边已确立起90多少个政党间对话与合营体制,有限支撑双方合作不会受到有损言论(unhelpful
comments)
计谋性疑虑(narrow-minded strategic thinking)的影响。

The two sides will continue to maintain strategic communication in the
areas of the military, open seas, outer space, and cyber domains
to increase trust.

二者将继续在部队、公海(open
seas)
、外太空、网络等领域保持攻略调换,以拉长互信。

American leaders have emphasized many times that they welcome a
strong, prosperous and stable China. Now it is time for the U.S. side
to match this important statement with concrete actions.

米利坚首领每每重申,接待贰个强有力、繁荣、牢固的炎黄。以后是把这一重要表态成为实际行动的时候了。

“The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going,” as
American philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson said. Now the three
conditions (time, place and person) are ripe, it is time for China and
the United States to stand on the same side to escape the historical
fatalism of confrontation between big powers
. If Thucydides trap is
replaced with a new model of major-country relationship, China and
the United States will have made a great contribution to the world’s
future and mankind’s wisdom.

正如美利坚独资国国学家Ralph·瓦尔多·爱默生说:“人但有追求(who knows where he
is going
人知道去何地
),世界亦会让路。”中国和U.S.A.再一次到来了最主要的野史当口,未有理由不迷惑天时、地利、人和三重有利因素,携手打破正史怪圈。用洋气大国关系终结(replaced
with)
“修昔底德陷阱”,将是中国和U.S.A.执手献给世界将来和人类智慧的最棒礼物。

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